PILLAR 02 · MARKET PULSE Interview EP 107

Ontario Real Estate Market Outlook 2026: Decoding the Data with Bruno Valko

with Bruno Valko , Vice President of National Sales , RMG Mortgages
Play: Ontario Real Estate Market Outlook 2026: Decoding the Data with Bruno Valko
LISTEN ON ▶ YouTube
48 min · June 8, 2026 · 69 views
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
  1. How current Ontario home prices compare to the 2021 peak.
  2. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz oil shock on Canadian inflation.
  3. The correlation between the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve.
  4. Why lower purchase prices can offset higher interest rates for buyers.
  5. Strategies for surviving the 2026 mortgage renewal cliff.
  6. The framework for choosing between fixed and variable mortgage rates.
Show Notes
Timestamps 8
Questions Answered 3
Mentioned In This Episode 1
Don't let the headlines scare you. While many claim it's the worst time to buy in Ontario, the actual data tells a more nuanced story. In this episode, Dalia Barsoum sits down with Bruno Valko, Vice President of National Sales at RMG Mortgages, to break down the macro-economic shifts shaping 2026.



From the impact of oil shocks via the Strait of Hormuz to the reality of the 2026 mortgage renewal cliff, we dive deep into the numbers. Learn why buying today might actually be more affordable upfront and how to navigate interest rate uncertainty with confidence.
Is inflation coming back to Canada?

While the headline inflation rose to 2.4% due to energy costs, the CPI trimmed—which strips out food and energy—was at its lowest in five years at 2.2%, suggesting inflation remains largely anchored.

Should I follow US interest rate trends?

Historically, the Bank of Canada and the US Fed have moved in the same direction over the last 10 years, making US rate decisions a key indicator for Canadian homeowners.

Is it cheaper to buy a home now than in 2021?

Yes, because average Ontario home prices are roughly $100,000 to $125,000 lower than the 2021 peak, which can result in lower down payments and smaller mortgage amounts that offset higher rates.

  • CME FedWatch Tool
Where do you start?